There is no force so unstoppable as an idea whose time has come. Even if that idea is a panic-inducing over-reaction to a story that has been in slow buildup for about eight years.

Bird flu has catapulted off of the science section and gone straight to the front page of a news source near you, and thus escalated into a full-on media hysteria. To read the coverage, especially in the wake of recent outbreaks of the (avian variety of) bird flu in Europe in the last few days, you could be forgiven for thinking that we are on the verge of a civilization-ending event.

Honestly, if reality TV couldn't end civilization, this won't. Actually, reality TV may pose a convincing argument for the conclusion that civilization already has ended, in which case the bird flu is moot, at best.

Anyway, I was particularly interested in this article from CNN, which comes with an appropriately apocalyptic headline:
Bird flu declared 'global threat'

Tuesday, October 18, 2005 Posted: 2150 GMT (0550 HKT)

LONDON, England -- European Union foreign ministers on Tuesday declared the spread of bird flu from Asia into Europe a "global threat" requiring international action.

The meeting issued a statement saying bird flu posed a serious, global health threat if it shifted from birds to humans and one that required "a coordinated international reaction."

However, European Health Commissioner Markos Kyprianou said that the presence of bird flu in southeastern Europe did not increase the risk of a pandemic.
Isn't this lovely? This same article points out that H5N1 avian flu first emerged in Hong Kong in 1997. It has since appeared in China, Vietnam, Indonesia, and much of the rest of Asia, where all of the 60-odd fatalities and most of the economic damage have been. But now that it's reaching Europe, it's a "global threat".

I would vouchsafe the following observation: bird flu became a global threat when it emerged in China, which has forgotten more about keeping birds, pigs and humans in close, unsanitary and flu-recombining proximity than Europe has ever known. China also has an opaque government not fond of disclosing the details of disease outbreaks, marginal healthcare facilities and, lest it need be pointed out, one quarter of the global population.

Anyway, now that the runs on Tamiflu have begun, perhaps some perspective is in order. A good place to start is this lengthy but interesting article on pandemic communications from risk communications expert Peter Sandman, who suggests that a little overreaction is a desirable and necessary part of the process. Sandman writes:
When people are first confronting a risk they haven’t thought about before, it is normal — and useful — to “over-react” for a while. Some people become hyper-vigilant; some take precautions prematurely; some obsess. Then a few people turn into fanatics, while most settle into the New Normal, more attentive than previously to the new risk, but not so obsessed anymore.

Officials are prone to misinterpret the public’s adjustment reaction as panic or hysteria. Instead of helping people get through it, they tend to try to tamp it down.

***

The least desirable risk communication response to the public’s adjustment reaction to the pandemic flu threat is to insist that the public is over-reacting. This is, if you will, an adjustment reaction to the adjustment reaction, an official over-reaction to the public’s over-reaction. (The technical term is “reactance.”) It will be unfortunate if people cope with their new bird flu fears by buying less chicken for a while. It will be more unfortunate if officials respond to the decline in chicken sales, if that’s what happens, by staging chicken-eating photo ops at which they ridicule the public for panicking.

Predictably, of course, finger-lickin' good photo opps are already being staged in a country near you (here is one photo).

It's good to know that all of my own, personal strategies are being validated. I am eating lots of chicken. I am also panicking. Not necessarily at the same time, because that would result in chicken grease getting everywhere, which is not nearly as much fun as chocolate syrup getting everywhere.

Today brings news of another outbreak in China. Everyone will be pleased to hear that China claims the whole thing is under control. That's good. China's outbreak is under control. Romania's outbreak is under control. Russia's outbreak is under control. Turkey's outbreak is under control. Macedonia's outbreak is under control. Everybody's outbreak is, er, under control. Move along. There's nothing to see here.

And that's the problem with birds, of course. The goddamn things fly, and don't have common courtesy to carry national ID cards or register properly at border crossings. Shoot the lot of them, I say. And then deep fry them in the Colonel's secret mix of eleven herbs and spices for good measure. It just doesn't take much intellectual rocketry to see that the bird flu doesn't really care what we do. It's going to march on until we vaccinate every domestic bird on the planet, and/or it comes into some kind of equilibrium with the wild bird population. And, if it evolves into a human-transmissible version, some kind of equilibirum with the human population.

Remember this is still the Avian flu were talking about. It doesn't actually infect people who aren't knee-deep in chicken-shit for twelve hours a day. At least not yet. I may wade in bullshit, but so far there has been no conclusive link between that and respiratory infections. Although brain waistage can be expected.

Nevertheless, over the past two months, my wife and I have taken some preparatory steps. Some may ridicule me for this, but I went through the wierdness of SARS in Singapore, and I live in a densely-populated city of fourteen million people with sanitation and medical care that are mediocre at best. I never got sick in Singapore. In Beijing I get some kind of stomach bug every eight weeks, and I have a near-perpetual low-grade sinus infection. Last spring I had my worst bout of (non-Avian) flu in about seven years. This is a good town for diseases.

I'd like to point out that my preparations predate the current media hysteria. I write this not to point out my prescience, but to illustrate that I am quite capable of hysteria without any prompting from the media. Of course, as my med-student brother said, "If pandemic flu really does break out, you're best bet is simply to stay in the house and wash your hands a lot."

Sounds like good advice. Thank god for all those pirate DVDs and the Internet!