Thursday, January 10, 2008 7:27 AM
by
will
Blue sky days: If at first you don't succeed, change the metric
You really didn't believe that things were getting better, did you? And you didn't believe that it fate that led Beijing to squeak past its 2007 blue-sky target by a margin of one whole day, did you?
Conspiracy theorists, rejoice. Via Danwei, the Wall Street Journal confirms your darkest suspicions:
On Jan. 1, the government announced "blue sky" days
had improved to 246 last year, up from 100 in 1998. The news was widely
reported inside and outside of China.
What wasn't reported, though, was a change in
collection methods. The Beijing API is an average of data from selected
monitoring stations. From 1998 to 2005, the same seven stations --
located in the city center -- were used to measure air quality. These
stations monitored areas with different characteristics, including high
traffic areas, plus residential, commercial and industrial districts.
In 2006, however, just as international scrutiny on China's air quality
was increasing, two stations monitoring traffic were dropped from the
city API calculations, while three additional stations in less polluted
areas were added.
Calculating the average daily Beijing API values for
2006 and 2007 using data from the original monitoring stations changes
the outcome considerably; in fact, 38 of Beijing's 241 so-called "blue
sky" days in 2006 would not have qualified as "blue sky" under
the old methodology. The number is even less for 2007: 55 fewer days
would have attained the "blue sky" standard, out of 246 reported "blue
sky" days. That translates into fewer "blue sky" days as a whole than
in 2002 (which had 203 reported "blue sky" days), immediately after
Beijing was awarded the Olympics, and casts grave doubt on China's
reported five straight years of continuous air quality improvement.
Mrs. Imagethief and I are going out to buy two mighty air cleaners this weekend, in preparation for Imagethief Jr's tender lungs. Sure, they only work so well, but you do what you can. Ironically, of course, somewhere out there in the Chinese wilderness, a power plant will chug out just a little more coal soot and carbon dioxide to power my two mighty air cleaners. Or, in just punishment, it could be the enormous power plant right next to my house.
And the gates of hell open just a crack wider for me.