Imagethief officially congratulates China for hitting the big 300 million Internet users. The Chinese wouldn't say 300 million, of course, they would say "three 100 millions" (三亿), which is subtly different and just goes to illustrate what a mysterious and cryptic people the Chinese are.

Or at least I presume that's how it's seen, as that's really the only way I can explain the enduring fascination with stories clocking the ongoing climb of China's Internet usership. The numbers themselves are as predictable as sunrise, thanks largely to the reliability of CNNIC's twice-yearly statistical reports. It was six months ago when we got the last round of hoopla, when China officially passed the US in Internet usership.

And, yes, I still burn with resentment that BDA got all kinds of press for calling this when Imagethief personally congratulated China on hitting that milestone a full four months earlier to the sound of crickets. Admittedly, my statistical methodology consisted of holding a ruler against the graph and drawing a line. This is less than rigorous, and I am prepared to take my lumps. But, still, besides methodology, a track record and statistical rigor, what does a well known analyst firm have that I don't?

But let's get real. Granted, the Internet is important and will Make Us All Free (while simultaneously expanding our pornography options almost limitlessly -- how can you beat that combination?). But aren't these stories predicated on China's Astounding Bigness getting just a little old? After all, China has 1.3 billion people (give or take). It is natural that it has more of many things than most other countries. Here is just a partial list of the things China has more of than any other country:

  • Underwear
  • Cigarette lighters
  • Fistfights (at least, based on the number I've witnessed here)
  • Chopsticks
  • US Treasury Bills
  • Little yappy dogs in stocking feet

But so what? 1.3 billion people are simply going to have more cigarette lighters, even if the per-capita is low. (Although in China the per-capita for cigarette lighters is probably not low.) Someday, in a world that will probably look something like Matt Groening's "Futurama", China's GDP will pass that of the USA. But it will still have only 1/4 the per-capita GDP of the US unless US immigration laws change in a hurry and we import all of India (which would make Bill Gates happy but probably enrage almost everyone else).

That's why Imagethief always finds it much more interesting to read about what China has less of: Qualified pilots, 3G, safe pet food, public dissent, good movies and so on. The shortcomings are where you really learn something about a country. (Yes, we can also learn about the US that way.)

In that spirit I think it's worth contrasting the glamorous headline number with the less glamorous reality that even in Beijing, the hub of China's technology industry, my DSL connection is "broadband" only by about 2002 standards, crippling the prospects for entire classes of emerging online services. The fastest connection I can get by a wireless card is reminiscent of the late-stage dialup era. Meaningful access from mobile devices is limited at best. Absent a VPN, international sites flicker in and out of accessibility like will-o-the-wisps. And although there is some originality, much Internet entrepreneurship here is still based on the "Chinese version of <insert Silicon Valley success story here>" theme.

The Internet is important in China. It's a powerful social force and it's transforming media here much as it is elsewhere in the world. And, yes, my expectations are high, especially for what is, after all, a developing country. But there is what is big, and then there is what is interesting. So let's keep some perspective. Sometime in the next couple of years, before growth starts to collide with economic reality, we'll cross half a billion users and there will be bonfires in the streets. But my DSL will probably still suck.

Note: In CNNIC reports, what is interesting is usually behind the big headline number. Adam Schokora has been translating some of the more interesting granular facts and figures and posting them at his 56minus1 blog. Check it out.